AAPOR 2023

My first encounter with the AAPOR (American Association for Public Opinion Research) conference was a memorable one. It was in the early 2000s, either 2004 or 2005, in Miami. Being a student on a tight budget, I ended up in a hotel quite a distance away from the conference venue, braving a humid climate and unfamiliar streets.

At the time, my future was uncertain. I was struggling with my PhD program and facing the prospect of needing to leave by the end of the semester. I lined up several job interviews, only to be cancelled at the last minutes. I still recall an individual who ran a survey business, Mr.O cancelling our meeting at the last moment to socialize with his friends instead. It was a grounding moment that reminded me of my current status in the professional world - I was nobody.

Fast forward to 2023, it’s been almost 20 years since that first conference, and my journey has been rewarding. I’ve made numerous connections, many of whom are involved in partisan political polling. This year, I was pleasantly surprised by the number of colleagues from this field attending the conference. Their interest in sharing, learning, and improving the industry is truly commendable.

The industry has evolved significantly, as noted by Nate Cohn in his recent New York Times article. (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/12/upshot/polling-elections-2024.html) Once, partisan pollsters like myself were considered outliers in the industry, often facing skepticism and dismissiveness when presenting our work.

I remember a group of veterans in the industry who chose to ignore the changing landscape of research, holding fast to traditional design-based methodologies. I recall one incident when a founder of a renowned research firm, tasked with discussing papers, intentionally ignored mine - and he discussed all the presentations - except mine, despite having received all necessary materials in advance. Meeting him again at the recent conference, I noticed he was walking slow, gray and shrunk.

Despite the challenges faced in the past, I continue to appreciate the valuable opportunities and engaging discussions the AAPOR conferences provide. It’s fascinating to cross paths with so many diverse individuals.

As I look forward to future conferences, I’m committed to offering guidance and support to anyone I encounter, striving to be a better mentor than some I’ve experienced. The Japanese term ‘Hanmen Kyōshi’ - learning what not to be from someone’s negative example - resonates with me.

On the brighter side, I cannot overemphasize the incredible experiences and connections I’ve made over the past 19 years of attending these conferences. It has been a journey of growth, learning, and resilience, and I eagerly anticipate what the future holds.